Wednesday, November 3, 2010

I have returned...

I been away for a while and it seems things went crazy. An oil spill, Health care reform (sort of), obamania wearing off, and the Republicans taking back congress just to name a few. Well, I will try and give my thoughts breifly on each one.

The Oil Spill - Well... I saw the live videos, the reports and estimates from everyone it seems. I loved how suddenly everyone became an expert on such obscure subjects as "how much oil can come from an open 21 inch diameter pipe at ocean depths". Everyday some new "expert" was telling me there was ever more oil coming from the well. No estimates were good after a day or two, and no two estimates were alike. It was almost like a contest to see who could put up the largest numbers. Frankly it all got a bit confusing.

Finally I asked how much oil came out of it. No one seems to know. I then asked how much oil was in the well originally. And again no one seems to know that either. Just seems rather odd that all these people and groups or organizations can claim this or that millions/bajillions of oil is spilling per day but no one can tell me how much was in the well it was coming from and finally how much came out after it was essentially capped. I smell media and political BS...

Don't get me wrong the oil spill was a terrible tragedy and it was obviously an insane amount of oil did spill, but that does not make it alright for politicians and media to BS me. All I want is the truth, you guys got that? Don't pander to me, don't lie to me or try to scare me, just tell me like it is. I can't understand why this is such a hard thing to grasp. 

To show what I mean do a google search for either "how much oil was originally in the deepwater horizon well", or "how much oil was spilled in the deepwater horizon oil spill" and see what you get. You will get (like I did) a huge listing of things all of which do not answer either question. You will find various estimates on how much flowed per day ranging from 100,000 barrels a day to 1000 barrels a day. As it turns out it was estimated finally on August 2nd officially at 62,000 barrels a day. But even the best estimates cannot compensate accurately for however much methane or other substances/gases came out with the oil. And even BP couldn't tell me how much was in the oil well they had a hole at that depth and at great expense to get. What the hell guys? You cannot seriously expect me to believe you would dig a well like that and at such great difficulty, setting a record for depth and all that, with no real knowledge about the amount of oil (profit) you stood to gain from it. If you are still using "best guess" in todays age of technology its a wonder you ever found any oil at all.

Oil drilling is a business. Its run like a business and doing risky things like that oil well with no idea if it would even be profitable is just unbelievable. They would not spend so much time money and effort into a well like that unless they had a dam good idea there was a LOT of oil there.

The bottom line is, if we knew how much oil was in the well to begin with all the scary headlines and numbers or estimates would either be bogus or just a start at the real damage. By not having a clear estimate to the amount in the well they do not have a way to show how much they lost in revenue from that well either. Kind of handy number for an investor to have wouldn't you think? Yeah...

No matter what the damage to the environment is incomprehensible. This will be felt for generations of wildlife and that is a tragedy of epic proportions. But in the end I would still want the truth no matter how big or small it may be.

Health Care Reform- This next line is for my nephew and brother... TOLD YA SO!... Yeah they both said "no way, it will pass" but I told them it will pass because its really a global thing and soon all countries will have some form of socialized medical system. Its simple really, medical costs are out of control. Costs from the obvious like the equipment, facilities and professionals to the not so obvious like malpractice suits/insurance,unpaid medical debt, and the ever growing cost of keeping the technology up to date. Not to mention the fact that as our standards of living get better we in turn live longer, have lower birth mortality rates, and more people living longer means more diseases by volume to treat.

To show what I mean lets do a little hypothetical math here... First say we have 1000 people 5 years ago. Of those say 50 have some form of disease requiring treatment to varying degrees and we have 1 doctor to treat them. 5 years later those 1000 people are now 3000 and instead of the 50 with diseases needing treatment we now have 150. We now need 3 doctors, and 3 times the number of everything that treatment entails. Now none of those numbers are based on any real data they are just common sense and logic. But using them we can see how nearly 400 million people in a country can lead to medical costs skyrocketing. You add in the other factors mentioned previously and you have medical costs that cannot be stopped or slowed. Also as infant mortality rates drop with better medical treatment, so will the number of diseases needing treatment increase across the board. If you have 100 live births and 10 have diseases needing treatment, increasing live births to 1000 will increase the number of diseases to 100. Even if we manage to early diagnose and or cure some of those diseases they will not match the increase even in the best estimations.

All of this means we will need more medical professionals, more facilities, more medicines, and more of just about everything related. As those increase so will the number of malpractice suits, and unpaid medical bills leading to rising costs in malpractice insurance and outstanding debt. Using simple logic and reason we have to concede there is no other way to combat this cycle without a fundamental change. Like it or not there is no other viable alternative.

I am not a fan of this Obamacare or most socialized medical schemes in the world, but until there is fundamental change in the medical profession we have little choice.

Obamania wearing off - Yeah... Even a nobel prize for nothing can't stop the reality from coming in under the door. Superman lost his cape and his approval ratings are plummeting already. All I can say is I told ya so... One more example of how new or different is not always better. So far outside of health care he has pretty much mirrored George W's policies. But I guess its different because hes not George W..... Okay...

When I saw how close he and Kissinger were I smelled a rat. And sure enough its business as usual. We are still in Afghanistan just as I said we would be. We are still throwing money at problems and increasing debt exponentially and despite all the big talk nothing outside healthcare has changed anywhere near what was promised. Oh and no repeal on the patriot act either.... Thanks for the BS Mr. professional politician.

Republicans taking back congress - Saw that coming... With a presidential approval rating in the gutter and the democratic congress showing their true democrat nature ( spend, spend, spend) there was little doubt they were going to be gone soon. The sad thing is though many people just went in and voted Republican across the ballot with no idea who many of the people they voted for were or what they were about. I can't help but fear a few 700 club members got in the mix. I am sorry but I like my religion and government to be separate. Whenever the two mix it always ends badly.

And BTW for anyone who watches the 700 club. They have been going on about the separation of church and state for a while now. In fact Pat Robertson likes to pretend he is a constitutional law expert and claim the first amendment to the constitution does not mention the separation of church and state... Well Pat you are right it doesn't say those words. Here is what it DOES say word for word..

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

It says there very plainly that congress shall not make any laws establishing a national religion or church. That means they wanted the church to remain a separate entity from the government. Separate and chosen individually by each person on their own with no interference from the government. Pretty clear to me its meaning anyway.

Pat likes to twist words and meanings around on this as you can see on his official website here. Read as much as you can, but please try and at least get through the first 5 paragraphs. In his words there he associates the word "state" to mean state as in "Ohio" or "Virginia". However the word "state" when used to describe the first amendment clearly means the government, or the federal government to be more precise. For example we have a secretary of state. So that person is not the secretary of each state but rather the secretary of the federal government. In fact this is from wikkipedia

"The United States Secretary of State is the head of the United States Department of State, concerned with foreign affairs. The Secretary is a member of the Cabinetand the highest-ranking cabinet secretary both in line of succession and order of precedence. The current Secretary of State is Hillary Rodham Clinton, the 67th person, and third woman to hold the post."

So if the US Secretary of State does not oversee the States in the union but rather foreign affairs. One can easily see how the term "state" refers to the government itself and not the States in the union individually. So in Pat's ramblings about this on his website he tries to associate the term "state" inaccurately in so doing makes it all too clear that he is trying to use misleading and utter false information to justify his belief that we need religious oversight in government. Sorry Pat but you are flat wrong on that, and trying to use word play will not make it right.

Allowing church to influence government in any manner ultimately will result in a violation of the first amendment. And all the wordplay and misleading arguments will not change that. Do I think having witnesses swear in using a bible or having the supreme court start meetings with prayer while telling schools they can't do that is hypocritical? You bet I do, but that DOES NOT change the fact there is a separation of church and state by the first amendment nor does it make it okay to allow church or religion to influence government. I say take all references to religion out of all court and government proceedings. Courts are supposed to be about law, they make it very clear that justice, right and wrong and truth are subject to proof under the laws. What we feel, think or want to believe are to be put aside and what we can prove under the law is all that will stand. If that is indeed the case than religion cannot be a factor in the courts or laws. The two cannot coexist in any functional form. One is faith based, the other is fact based. A judge or lawyer can use his personal religion as a moral compass to make his decisions or choices but that would be on a personal level, not an action of the court itself or laws. For example murder is both illegal and immoral in a religious and social sense. So that is an easy and nearly universal decision. However not paying your taxes is illegal and although not socially accepted it is a far cry from universally viewed as immoral. Is not paying your taxes a sin? Seems a bit foggy now doesn't it.... Thats the problem with mixing religion and government as well. Sometimes the correct action or decision is not a correct religious one and vice versa. 

So thats about enough constitutional law interpretation from the religious right if you don't mind....